U.S. Mormons are gradually shifting away from their default affiliation with the Republican Party, but the change is more of a ripple than a wave.
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints recently issued a statement warning against voting based solely on party affiliation, challenging the tradition of conservative Mormons voting for Republican candidates.
Data from the Cooperative Election Study shows a decline in Republican affiliation among Mormons over time, with the highest point at 75% in 2012 (thanks to Mitt Romney) and the lowest points at 53% in 2017 and 2021 (attributed to Donald Trump and the January 6th extremists).
The decline in GOP affiliation is more prominent among younger generations of Mormons.
The data also indicates that while Republicans have experienced modest losses of about 7 points, Democrats have gained only 3 points, while independents gained 4.
A comparison of political affiliation between the years 2008-2012 and 2018-2022 reveals modest GOP losses, with younger generations showing a more enduring shift away from the Republican Party.
The findings align with a separate study called the Next Mormons Survey, which also indicates stronger Republican preference among older Mormons.
The study shows a significant drop in GOP identification between baby boomers and Generation X, with Gen X at 53% GOP affiliation and millennials at 54%, while Gen Z is at 48%.
However, the Democratic Party also faces some attrition among younger LDS adherents, with about 3 in 10 Gen Xers and millennials identifying as Democrats, but only 1 in 5 among Gen Z.
It remains to be seen if the recent statement against straight-party voting by the Church will have any impact on the perception of political alignment among older Mormons, who still associate their faith with the Republican Party.
Younger church members are already showing signs of a weakening affiliation with the GOP.
