- U.S. Mormons are gradually shifting away from their default affiliation with the Republican Party, but the change is more of a ripple than a wave.
- The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints recently issued a statement warning against voting based solely on party affiliation, challenging the tradition of conservative Mormons voting for Republican candidates.
- Data from the Cooperative Election Study shows a decline in Republican affiliation among Mormons over time, with the highest point at 75% in 2012 (thanks to Mitt Romney) and the lowest points at 53% in 2017 and 2021 (attributed to Donald Trump and the January 6th extremists).
- The decline in GOP affiliation is more prominent among younger generations of Mormons.
- The data also indicates that while Republicans have experienced modest losses of about 7 points, Democrats have gained only 3 points, while independents gained 4.
- A comparison of political affiliation between the years 2008-2012 and 2018-2022 reveals modest GOP losses, with younger generations showing a more enduring shift away from the Republican Party.
- The findings align with a separate study called the Next Mormons Survey, which also indicates stronger Republican preference among older Mormons.
- The study shows a significant drop in GOP identification between baby boomers and Generation X, with Gen X at 53% GOP affiliation and millennials at 54%, while Gen Z is at 48%.
- However, the Democratic Party also faces some attrition among younger LDS adherents, with about 3 in 10 Gen Xers and millennials identifying as Democrats, but only 1 in 5 among Gen Z.
- It remains to be seen if the recent statement against straight-party voting by the Church will have any impact on the perception of political alignment among older Mormons, who still associate their faith with the Republican Party.
- Younger church members are already showing signs of a weakening affiliation with the GOP.
